In accordance with the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Smart Home Device Tracker, global smart TV shipments are predicted to drop 5.5% year over year in 2023.
Despite this, the sector is expected to stabilise with zero growth in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years. Between 2023 and 2027, the predicted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for worldwide shipments is 3.3%.
"Much of the growth within the smart TV market is allocated to emerging markets," said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Manager for IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers.
He cites high rates of inflation and long refresh cycles as the backdrop for this, but also notes a significant transition within mature economies. In these markets, televisions are "quickly transitioning from media consumption screens to ecosystem gateways," leading to brands such as Amazon and Roku to compete on both price and features that integrate within a broader smart home environment.
"Weak consumer demand in areas like North America has resulted in a significant downward trend on shipments in 2023," noted Adam Wright, Research Manager for Smart Home and Office Devices at IDC.
This downward pressure is expected to continue through most of 2024, with numerous suppliers predicting that economic hurdles will persist into the first half of next year. Sales of premium televisions are currently being relied upon to support these companies' bottom lines. The sustainability of this approach in the long-term remains dubious.
In India, however, the market has shown strength. The IDC's Quarterly Smart Home Devices Tracker reported that in the first half of 2023 (1H23), there was an 8% year-over-year increase in television shipments, totalling 4.5 million units.
Factors contributing to this growth include frequent online sales, new product launches, and clearance of old inventory ahead of festive seasons. As a consequence, online sales rose by 25% YoY in 1H23, making up 39% of total shipments.
Upasana Joshi, IDC India's Research Manager for Client Devices, highlighted that due to decreasing prices, customers are choosing affordable smart TVs over retrofitting non-smart TVs with a streaming stick.
This is reflected in the declining popularity of streaming sticks, whose shipments dropped by 85% in 1H23. The average selling price for smart TVs during the same period was recorded at US$380, a 3% YoY decline.
The trend of larger screens is also growing, with the share of 55-inch TVs increasing to 12% from 9% a year earlier. As a result, there has been a 35% YoY surge in the USD$400+ price segment. The popularity of sub-US$200 televisions also rose from 26% to 39% during the first half of 2023, with 8GB internal storage being the most preferred feature, growing 33% YoY.
In 2022, India received 9.8 million TV units, indicating a 7% YoY growth. IDC forecasts 2023 to be flat or exhibit single-digit growth due to anticipated festival season offers. Xiaomi maintains its lead in the Indian TV market with a 14% share in 1H23, while Samsung and LG following with 13% and 12% respectively. TCL and OnePlus completed the top five, each with 8% and 7% market shares.