Study shows 10% of jobs may be replaced by AI in 5 years

A global survey conducted by Verdantix has indicated that more than half of businesses expect 10% of job roles to be replaced by artificial intelligence (AI) agents in the next five years.

The research, which involved 252 senior executives from IT and AI functions, revealed that 62% of these businesses foresee significant cost savings mainly from the elimination of management roles rather than frontline worker roles. These companies anticipate that budget allocations for AI projects will increase by 10-24% within a year.

Industries such as sales, marketing, and customer service are likely to experience a higher number of AI-related projects, with 28% of respondents indicating such developments this year. This suggests a growing comfort in these fields towards integrating AI, though it may also imply potential risks for jobs in these areas.

Despite predictions of job displacement, many firms are currently employing AI in collaboration with human workers rather than in a standalone capacity. 72% of businesses have integrated AI into processes like chat, research, and creative writing. In contrast, only 37% have deployed domain-specific autonomous AI agents. The idea of human/AI co-pilots is also gaining traction, particularly within the transport sector, where 67% of firms expect its adoption by 2025.

However, while companies are increasing investments in AI, there is caution regarding the full autonomy of the technology, with only 11% of executives believing that computers will achieve human-like intelligence by 2030.

Commenting on the findings, David Metcalfe, CEO of Verdantix, stated, "The findings show an upward trend in expected AI investment and integration in the coming years. How this plays out in the short and medium term though is very different. The immediate sees predominantly human machine cooperation, with AI augmenting or replacing parts of jobs. However, by 2030, though there is wide acknowledgement that computers won't have the same intelligence level as humans, we are going to see full job role replacement in segments of the market as integration and AI autonomy beds in."

Metcalfe also highlighted the broader implications for job creation and workforce adjustments: "This isn't just a challenge for the existing workforce to face. It will naturally also affect future job creation. For example, using AI automation to increase the volume of audits without hiring more auditors. And it's not just replacements and cuts – it's shifts too. The complexity of AI technologies was cited as the most significant factor slowing AI adoption, suggesting a change in skills is also required."

According to the survey, a majority of firms (52%) describe their AI strategy as one aimed at securing competitive advantage. Faster process execution is expected to be a significant benefit arising from AI projects in the next three years, as indicated by 30% of the respondents.

Metcalfe concluded, "AI is becoming a genuine corporate differentiator if harnessed correctly. Though the reality of making this a success requires a pragmatic and informed approach to short, medium and long-term workforce adjustments. It is a complex, but crucial step change to be addressed."